The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has issued a warning about potential continued aftershocks throughout April following the major earthquake that struck Myanmar on March 28. According to forecasts released on April 4, aftershocks are expected to continue until April 11. The USGS estimates a 99 percent probability of earthquakes with magnitude 3 or greater, with the number of occurrences ranging from 2 to 22 times.
For earthquakes with magnitude 5 or greater, there is a 54 percent probability with potential occurrences ranging from 0 to 4 times. Earthquakes with magnitude 6 or greater have an 8 percent probability with up to one possible occurrence, while earthquakes with magnitude 7 or greater have less than 1 percent probability. However, the research organization has confirmed that the likelihood of major earthquakes occurring again is very low.
The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck near Mandalay city in the afternoon of March 28 occurred at a depth of approximately 10 kilometers. According to the USGS, this major earthquake, which occurred near the Sagaing Fault, caused ground displacement measuring approximately 460 kilometers in length and 15 kilometers in width. The earthquake resulted in numerous casualties and injuries, as well as extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure.
From March 28 until today, there have been 85 aftershocks recorded, with 9 aftershocks occurring on this day alone, according to the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. The earthquake damage caused houses in Sittara village, Pale Township, to sink into the ground, forcing local residents to evacuate their homes.
