At a border security discussion held in the Thai Parliament, a professor from the National War College in Washington DC analyzed that the Myanmar military council can no longer win the ongoing conflicts, presenting five key pieces of evidence. The discussion, which took place from March 22 to 23, primarily focused on sustainable peace and security matters in the region. The analysis highlighted the military’s increasingly untenable position across multiple fronts.
According to the professor’s analysis, the Myanmar military is facing severe challenges on multiple fronts. First, they are forced to spread their forces too thin across numerous battlefronts throughout the country. Second, they are experiencing a critical manpower shortage that cannot be resolved despite their intensive efforts. Third, their logistics networks have largely collapsed. While the military previously maintained control over the country with more than 500 military bases, they can no longer effectively resupply or rearm these positions. Additionally, they lack sufficient air transport and helicopter capacity to maintain these outposts.
The analysis further revealed that the military’s 24 crucial defense equipment factories are becoming increasingly vulnerable, with resistance forces including the Arakan Army and their allies moving closer to these facilities. Rather than needing to capture these facilities directly, the resistance forces can effectively cut off their supply lines. Internal divisions within the military have also deepened, creating significant rifts in the organization. While the military maintains air superiority, they are using this advantage primarily to terrorize civilians rather than for strategic military objectives.
The military council is experiencing a severe depletion of resources with no alternative revenue streams to replenish them. This situation has been exacerbated by the military’s own brutal actions, which have devastated Myanmar’s economy. While the military previously had access to numerous revenue sources, these have now largely disappeared. The professor emphasized that the military’s self-destructive actions have not only alienated the population but also destroyed their own economic foundation, making it increasingly impossible to sustain their operations or maintain control over the territory they claim to govern.
